How Gordon Moore Predicted the Digital Revolution

這篇文章有趣 讓我想到很多虛假的公司的判斷方法

• http://goo.gl/Ap8Hhh

" He predicted that engineers would keep shrinking transistors, resistors and other components, doubling the number they could fit on a square of silicon every year or so."

• 所以從企業產品的 Size 可以看出端倪.

"a doubling of components on chips every two years"

"the pace of miniaturization– dubbed Moore’s Law by Carver Mead, a professor at the California Institute of Technology–became a rough benchmark for chip makers trying to keep up with competition."

• 微型化的優點

1 Making transistors smaller can bring several benefits at once. 

2 The distances electrical signals need to travel become shorter, making chips faster. 

3 Smaller components also can reduce requirements for electricity. 

4 Smaller components can mean more cells to store bits of data, boosting the capacity of memory chips. Above all, tinier circuitry lowers the cost of whatever functions chip makers want to deliver.

5 The plummeting cost of computing power led to explosive growth in the semiconductor industry

問電路的設計 如何符合1.2.3.4.5.?

我簡單記成: 輕薄短小+省電便宜 

如果大老闆跟你講了一堆,但實際成品尺寸卻是如豬公大 價格
比天高,  那他就是個不折不扣的演員了.

真的很準. 當成 The Joe's law

另外,查閱年報裡的R&D支出%. % 高都不見得能掌握技術; %低 (5%以下, 有些公司1% 都不到) 就可以預測在數位時代這種公司是什麼光景.

奸詐的老闆,當自家產品追求"輕薄短小+省電便宜",但最後價格比天高, 這就變成管理會計裡的"Make or Buy decision".

自己做要100元, 別家才賣75元. 直接買那75元的產品, 貼上自家牌子,賣100元. 不用生產,還毛利25%. 

這種假電子公司, 假網站, 假上市公司, 這種不誠信所造成的種種矛盾. 日久股價見人心. 台廠不少, 陸廠也有. 所以不用50步笑百步.